Level up the game of your competitive analysis

Hey There,

In the exciting world of business, there's a whole field dedicated to understanding and analysing our competitors. But have you ever thought about taking competitor analysis to the next level? It's not just about understanding their current moves, but predicting their future actions and reactions to our own strategies. It's like playing a game of chess, where you can't just expect your opponent to sit still – they'll make their own smart moves to counter yours.

So, how can we elevate our analysis and make accurate predictions about our competitors? John Horn, a former McKinsey consultant and professor at Washington University's Olin Business School, has some fascinating insights.

The first step is to pay close attention to what competitors are saying and doing. Dive into their earnings calls, annual reports, and media releases. The second step is to uncover their assets, resources, and capabilities. Look for any advantages they may have, such as a supply chain in untapped markets or upgraded facilities. Put yourself in their shoes and ask, "If I had their toys to play with, what would I do?"

Next, consider the people making decisions within the competitor's organization. What do you know about them? For example, a CEO with a marketing background is unlikely to focus on optimizing factories. They'll likely prioritize marketing efforts to drive company growth, leveraging their expertise. Understanding their backgrounds can provide valuable insights into their decision-making process.

But here's where it gets really exciting – making predictions and tracking their outcomes. If you've paid attention to what the competitor has said and done, considered their assets, and understood their leaders' backgrounds, you can start making informed predictions about their future moves. Take note of whether your predictions align with their actual actions. If they do, you know you're on the right track. If not, dive back in and figure out what you missed. Maybe they partnered with someone unexpected or made new hires that influenced their decisions. Learning from these experiences will help you improve your predictions over time. Remember, it's not about being 100 percent accurate; even being 30 percent accurate is better than having no clue about your competitor's next move.

Now, let's inject some fun into this process! Imagine if we took inspiration from Meta's latest venture – celebrity chatbots powered by their LLM model, like Snoop Dogg and Chris Paul. These AI personalities have their own unique backgrounds, opinions, and interests. Here's an idea: what if we imported data based on the CEOs or decision-makers of our competitors and simulated their reactions to our actions, based on their personal backgrounds? It could be like playing a game with the competition's AI, predicting their moves and making more informed decisions ourselves.

So, let's step up our competitor analysis game and make it engaging and exciting. By understanding our opponents on a deeper level and foreseeing their strategies, we'll be better equipped to stay ahead of the game and come out on top!

Things that I found interesting this week:

📚 Book — Inside the Competitor's Mindset: How to Predict Their Next Move and Position Yourself for Success by John Horn

John Horn, a former McKinsey consultant and professor at Washington University's Olin Business School, shares a four-stage framework for analyzing and anticipating competitor behavior. This book has inspired me to explore the concept of competitor analysis in a new way, taking it beyond understanding current moves and into the realm of making accurate predictions. If you're interested in gaining a competitive edge in your industry and staying one step ahead of your rivals, this book is a must-read.

📃 Blog — How to predict your competitor’s next move | McKinsey

This is an interview on done by McKinsey Strategy room with John Horn sharing his 4-stage framework and some other key insights in analyzing and predicting competitors' move. You might also listen to the podcast directly, I think it should have already covered some of the main points we mentioned in the article as well.

📰 News — Meta Launches AI Chatbots for Snoop Dogg, MrBeast, Kendall Jenner, Others (variety.com)

If you are interested in knowing a bit more about the Meta new AI chatbot, you might refer to this piece on variety on a bit more information